The Aegean Sea experienced the most dangerous escalation of tensions in decades

The last years saw tensions in the Aegean Sea escalate to levels not seen in decades, as Turkey engaged in a dangerous barrage of daily violations of Greek airspace and maritime boundaries. Adding fuel to the fire, these violations were accompanied by statements from Turkish politicians who openly disputed the Treaty of Lausanne and the established borders between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean. There were real concerns in Athens and Washington that Turkey's unrestrained aggression in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean could lead to an accident that could rapidly escalate into a conflict between two NATO allies. 

Turkish violations of Greek sovereign airspace and armed flyovers over islands in the Aegean reached alarming levels in 2022, with Turkey engaging in over 11,000 airspace violations and 234 flyovers over Greek territory - often with armed F-16 jets. 2023 was on course to continue this streak, as in the first two months of the year Turkey engaged in over 1100 airspace violations.

Turkey's actions put lives at risk

When Turkish aircraft fly into Greek airspace, Greek fighter jets are forced to intercept Turkish planes, often leading to dangerous “dogfights”. In 2018 this led to the death of a Greek pilot who crashed after attempting to intercept a Turkish aircraft that had entered the country’s airspace. These dogfights often take place over Greek inhabited islands and in close proximity to civilian airports with high traffic. Turkey’s aggressive and dangerous behavior thus put lives at risk every day.

It is largely due to Greece’s responsible and restrained response that a serious incident was avoided.

A PERIOD OF CALM: WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Despite 2023 kicking off with a consistent barrage of overflights and threats from Turkey, 2023 turned out to be perhaps the calmest year since the abortive coup in Turkey in 2016. The turning point were the deadly earthquakes that hit Turkey in February. Greece's decision to step up and send aid - one of the first countries to do so - prompted memories of the earthquake diplomacy of the late 90s between the two countries, and a period of calm has settled in.

Since then, we've seen Turkey bring its violations of Greek airspace and its illegal overflights over Greek islands to a halt - an unprecedented hiatus since 1974. At the same time, Turkey has also toned down its aggressive rhetoric targeting Greece. This has created space for the leaders of both countries to meet - most recently in Athens on December 7, 2023 - and commit to maintaining “calm waters” in the Aegean. Prime Minister Mitsotakis and President Erdogan also agreed on the need for a gradual transition to a next stage, where difficult bilateral differences can be discussed without the threat of a total collapse of Greece-Turkey relations.

TURKEY’S ILLEGAL AGREEMENT WITH LIBYA

Another key sticking point between Greece and Turkey is the 2019 agreement Turkey signed with the Tripoli-based government (GNA) of Libya purporting to declare new maritime boundaries, despite the fact there can be no maritime boundaries between the two nations, and purposefully ignoring the maritime zones of Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. Turkey’s attempt to cut across boundaries clearly belonging to Greece, Egypt, and Cyprus under international law was seen as its latest attempt to infringe on the sovereignty of Greece and Cyprus and to further destabilize the Aegean and the whole Eastern Mediterranean region as it looked to pursue its dangerous and irredentist "Blue Homeland" policy.

BUILDING ON THIS PROGRESS: IS ERDOGAN'S “TRANSFORMATION” VIS-A-VIS GREECE GENUINE?

During their meeting in Athens, Turkish President Erdogan, who once declared that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis “no longer exists” for him, now call him his “friend Kyriakos”. Is this transformation genuine, and how can this momentum be maintain and built upon? Having set the basis for a new turn in Greek-Turkish relations, 2024 will certainly be an important year, and how those questions are answered will be critical, especially if the two countries are going to proceed from de-escalation to detente to rapprochement.